Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region is the epicenter for the emergence of a series of mega-regional agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Agreement (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the Pacific Alliance (PA) established in 2011 among Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. However, since early 2017 the region has experience rising protectionism, as seen in the decision of the United States to withdraw from TPP, sending shockwaves across the region.

The PA has decided to continue with its process, recently launching negotiations with four associated members (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Singapore). This is the context of structural changes and uncertainty that the Pacific Alliance must now face. This raises questions such as: What role should the Pacific Alliance play in the new regional architecture in the Asia Pacific? How should the Pacific Alliance prepare to maintain its relevance in a context of mega-regional agreements that include several of its members? Based on these and other questions, the authors formulated a total of six scenarios that describe possible interactions among the Pacific Alliances and the other mega- regional agreements.

These scenarios were tested using GTAP to understand which of them would have a more positive impact on regional exports via both tariff reduction and trade facilitation measures. The results from these scenarios, suggest that the one that would have the greatest effect on exports would be the Integration of the Pacific Alliance economies to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), followed by the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership with the participation of Colombia and China (CPTPP 13). These scenarios offer significant increases in the aggregate exports of the group, both in the face of the tariff reduction and in response to trade facilitation reforms.

Resumen:
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Authors: José Bernardo García, Camilo Pérez-Restrepo, María Teresa Uribe Jaramillo
Full document:2018, García et al, Understanding the relationship between Pacific Alliance and the mega – regional agreements in Asia – Pacific – what we learned from the GTAP simulation

Abstract:
The project analysed the asymmetries between the four economies of the Pacific Alliance members and how Colombia can face these challenges and transform them into opportunities, according to the experience of its allies across different areas.
According to databases of the signatory countries, the project found that the trade balance between Colombia and Mexico has a deficit and is continuously growing. This deficit could be offset through future negotiations, and agricultural specialisation improving compliance with sanitary and phytosanitary measures required by those markets.
The doors are opened to enter into agreements of great importance such as the TPP. The Republic of Chile, the United States of Mexico and the Republic of Peru are already part of it, and this agreement represents an opportunity for Colombia to be in the Asia – Pacific market and to achieve the sustainability of its companies, industries and sectors in the global context.

Resumen:
Por medio de este proyecto se analizaron las asimetrías presentes en las economías de los cuatro países miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico y cómo Colombia puede enfrentar estos y retos y convertirlos en oportunidades de acuerdo a la experiencia en diferentes áreas de sus países aliados.
De acuerdo a las bases de datos de los países firmantes se encontró que la balanza comercial entre Colombia y México presenta un déficit y está en constante crecimiento, pudiendo ser contrarrestada con futuras negociaciones y especialización de la industria agropecuaria tomando mejores medidas sanitarias y fitosanitarias requeridas por dichos mercados.
Igualmente se abren las puertas para ingresar a acuerdos con gran índole mundial como el TPP, del cual la República de Chile, los Estados Unidos Mexicanos y la República del Perú ya hacen parte lo que representa para Colombia una oportunidad para penetrar al mercado de Asia – Pacífico y buscar la perdurabilidad de las empresas, industrias y sectores dentro de un contexto global.

Author: Paula Andrea Piedrahita Valencia
Spanish title: Oportunidades y Amenazas para Colombia de Pertenencer a la Alianza del Pacífico
Full document: 2015, Piedrahita, Oportunidades y Amenaza para Colombia de Pertenecer a la Alianza del Pacífico