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Regional Integration in Latin America - The Pacific Alliance a Way Ahead
Journal Articles, Spanish

Impact of Oil Prices on the GDP of the Pacific Alliance Countries

Abstract:
This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA).

A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used that allow concluding a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and GDP in each of the PA countries. The study finds that an unexpected increase in oil prices does not affect the level of economic activity in Peru. For Chile, which is a net importer of oil, a similar shock effect increases GDP, contrary to what is suggested in theory.

For Mexico and Colombia, net exporters of oil, an unexpected positive oil price shock positively affects GDP; in Colombia, the positive effect is observed in the first six quarters, while for Mexico it is only present in the second and third quarters. These mixed responses of the PA countries to oil price shocks are evidence of the many challenges that economic policy coordination among PA member has to face.

Resumen:
Este artículo busca determinar el efecto del precio del petróleo sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada uno de los países que integran la Alianza del Pacífico (AP).

Se emplea un modelo VAR estructural y datos trimestrales que permiten concluir que existe una relación de largo plazo entre el precio internacional del petróleo y el PIB en cada uno de los países miembro de la AP.

Se encuentra que un aumento inesperado en los precios del petróleo no afecta el nivel de actividad económica en Perú. Para Chile, un importador neto de petróleo, el efecto de choque similar genera un aumento en el PIB, contrario a lo que se esperaría teóricamente. Para México y Colombia, exportadores netos de petróleo, el efecto de un choque positivo inesperado en el precio de petróleo es positivo sobre el PIB: en Colombia, el efecto positivo se observa para los primeros seis trimestres, mientras que para México solo está presente en el segundo y tercer trimestre. La heterogeneidad en la respuesta de estos países a choques en el precio del petróleo muestra los grandes retos que implicará la coordinación de la política económica entre los países miembro de la AP.

Authors: Julio César Alonso and Diego Alexánder Martínez Quintero
Spanish Title: Impacto del Precio del Petróleo sobre el PIB de los Países de la Alianza del Pacífico
Full document: 2017, Alonso & Martinez, Impacto del Precio del Petróleo sobre el PIB de los Países de la Alianza del Pacífico

August 13, 2016by Ana Maria Palacio

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Hello my name is Ana Maria Palacio. I have a PhD from the University of Melbourne. This blog is about my thesis project, the Pacific Alliance.

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