NAFTA parties decided last week to hold only one extra round of negotiations before the end of 2017, after previous announcements that seven rounds would be carried out before the end of this year.  The decision was motivated by a stalemate reached during the fourth round of negotiations when some proposals made by the US were not well received by its Canadian and Mexican counterparts. The WTO-minus proposals made by US negotiations raised concerns over the likely success of the renegotiation process. Other controversial proposals included a sunset clause for the renewal of the agreement every five years, the elimination of the investor-state dispute mechanism and the more stringent rules of origin.

Photocredits: Ikpro/FreeDigitalPhotos.net
However, it is not likely that it would be Canada and/or Mexico who would put an end to NAFTA with a very thorny road ahead. Withdrawal from the US is also remote. Extensive legal debates on the matter include whether the US president could withdraw from the agreement without congressional approval and how far the executive’s powers go regarding foreign affairs relations.  An arsenal of legal and judiciary tools will be ready to prevent and block such an outcome (see CRS).

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the economic integration policies implemented by economies of both shores of the Pacific basin through three instruments under negotiation: the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (tpp), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (rcep), and Pacific Alliance (ap).
The paper investigates Mexico’s participation in the tpp and the ap. It also points out the importance for the Mexican economy’s relationship between ap and tpp with the rcep. Referentially, the paper analyzes the correlation between these three instruments with economic regionalization projects in the Americas and Europe, including new free trade agreements.
The research is based mainly on the theoretical tools of international political economy and traditional constructivism. In this sense, the issues are addressed from a multilevel analysis (economic, military and international non-governmental actors), but with an emphasis on the economic level. The military subjects and role of transnational actors are addressing on complementary manner.

Resumen:
En este trabajo se analizan las políticas de integración económica puestas en práctica por los actores internacionales involucrados en la negociación de tres instrumentos en construcción: el Tratado Transpacífico de Asociación Económica Estratégica (tpp), el Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (rcep), ambos en el Pacífico asiático, y la Alianza del Pacífico (ap) en el Pacífico americano.
En el documento se plantea la perspectiva de México respecto de su participación activa, tanto en el tpp como en la Alianza del Pacífico, así como la necesidad de dar seguimiento, de manera permanente y sistemática, a otros procesos de regionalización de importancia global como el rcep y el tlc entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea.

Spanish Title: Las políticas de integración económica en el Pacífico asiático y el Pacífico latinoamericano: una perspectiva mexicana
Author: Roberto Hernández Hernández

Full document:2013, Hernandez, Las Políticas de Integración Económica en el Pacífico Asiático y el Pacífico Latinoamericano- una Perspectiva Mexicana

Abstract:
The North Atlantic space is undergoing active reconfiguration. In the Western Hemisphere this trend is marked by the presence of three distinct models of integration: intra-regional blocks such as Mercosur and the Andean Community; the FTAA and mega-regional agreements with the EU; and bilateral PTAs that have sprung up with greater impetus since the FTAA failure. The demise of the FTAA opened up the way for a dual track approach to trade integration in the hemisphere: on one hand, with Brazil increasingly seeking to institutionalise the South American subsystem, and on the other, the US resorting to bilateral agreements with like-minded countries in that same regional subsystem. The active rivalry between these two countries through preferential agreements is a major factor affecting the regional re-distribution of power.

Resumen:
El espacio noratlántico está experimentando una reconfiguración activa. En el hemisferio occidental, esta tendencia está marcada por la presencia de tres modelos distintos de integración: bloques intrarregionales como el Mercosur y la Comunidad Andina; el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas (ALCA) y los acuerdos mega-regionales con la UE; así como acuerdos preferenciales de comercio bilaterales que han surgido con más fuerza desde el fracaso del ALCA. La desaparición del ALCA abrió el camino a una doble vía de integración comercial en el hemisferio: por un lado, Brasil trata cada vez más de institucionalizar el subsistema de América del Sur, y, por el otro, Estados Unidos recurre a acuerdos bilaterales con los países de ideas afines en este subsistema regional. La activa rivalidad entre estos dos estados a través de acuerdos preferenciales es un factor importante que afecta a la redistribución regional del poder.

Spanish Title: Modelos competitivos de integración en el hemisferio occidental: ¿liderazgo competitivo o negación mutua?
Author: Cintia Quiliconi
Full document: 2013, Quiliconi, Modelos Competitivos de Integración en el Hemisferio Occidental- ¿Liderazgo Competitivo o Negación Mutua?

Abstract:
Not available

Resumen:
La Alianza del Pacífico privilegia la integración como instrumento para mejorar el desarrollo económico y social, promover las capacidades de emprendimiento y conformar un espacio ampliado y competitivo que sea atractivo a las inversiones y el comercio, especialmente con la región del Asia Pacífico. El fin último es lograr que las cadenas productivas de los Estados Parte sean atractivas para el mundo y generen mayores oportunidades de encadenamientos, de inversión y de incorporación más intensa a las corrientes globales de comercio de bienes y servicios, para que ofrezcan nuevas oportunidades de negocios y empleo a sus economías.

Author: Juan Acuña Bolívar, Latin American and Caribbean Economic System (SELA, Spanish Acronym)
Spanish Title: La Alianza del Pacífico en la Integración Latinoamericana y Caribeña
Full document:2013, SELA, La Alianza del Pacífico en la Integración Latinoamericana y Caribeña

Abstract:
The Pacific Alliance is an original integration mechanism adjusted to specific historical peculiarities of the region and of the founding states. It also shares some features with certain regionalism indications, especially with the open regionalism that characterized the 90s of the XX century. For this reason, The Pacific Alliance is presented as a renewed and updated regionalism, which is considered of deep integration. Economic internationalisation through the incorporation to new markets is one of the elements shared by the four founding states: Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. These countries control more than half of the Latin American foreign trade. Nevertheless, by carefully analyzing this matter, it is possible to observe that countries such as Peru and Colombia are left behind with respect to Mexico and Chile, even when compared to other countries of the region. Commercial agreements –especially The Pacific Alliance– are presented as an important opportunity for the Colombian strategy to reach economic internationalization, but it is important to overcome the exporting isolation and dependence of the country in order to maximize its potential benefits. It was evidenced that Colombia is commercially left behind when compared to the other members of the Alliance, especially Mexico and Chile.

Resumen:
La Alianza del Pacífico se presenta como un mecanismo de integración regional novedoso, ajustado a ciertas particularidades históricas de la región y de los Estados fundadores. Pero también, como proceso de integración comparte características con ciertas formas del regionalismo, especialmente con el regionalismo abierto característico de los años 90 del siglo XX, por lo cual, la Alianza del Pacífico se presenta como un nuevo regionalismo renovado, actualizado y autodenominado de integración profunda. La internacionalización económica por medio de inserción a nuevos mercados, es uno de los elementos que comparten los cuatro Estados fundadores: México, Colombia, Perú y Chile. En su conjunto estos países acaparan más de la mitad del comercio exterior latinoamericano.
No obstante, analizando en detalle se observa que países como Perú y especialmente Colombia, se encuentran un poco rezagados en dicha materia con respecto a sus similares de México y Chile, incluso si se mira a otros países de la región. Los acuerdos comerciales y en especial la Alianza del Pacífico se presenta como una importante oportunidad en la estrategia colombiana de internacionalización económica, pero se debe superar el aun aislamiento y dependencia mono exportadora del país, con el fin de maximizar los beneficios potenciales que estos presentan, ya que se evidencia un importante rezago de Colombia en términos comerciales con respecto a los demás miembros de la alianza, especialmente frente a México y Chile.

Authors: Lisbeth Katherine Duarte Herrera, Carlos Hernán González Parías, Diego Alejandro Montoya Uribe
Spanish Title: Colombia de cara al nuevo regionalismo renovado: la Alianza del Pacífico
Full document:2014, Duarte et al, Colombia de Cara al Nuevo Regionalismo Renovado- la Alianza del Pacífico

Abstract:
This paper seeks to answer why the Pacific Alliance (PA) has emerged as the latest integration initiative in the already wide spectrum of multilateral groups in Latin America. It does so by evaluating the political and economic considerations that motivated the PA’s formation, aiming to present informed arguments within the framework of trade and political developments in the region. This paper is based on both secondary and primary data (interviews), and it is divided into four parts plus conclusions. The paper starts by presenting a general characterization of the Alliance; afterwards, presents a historic and comparative overview of the integration processes in the region; assesses the current level of integration between the PA members; and, finally, offers insights into future developments in the following areas: transnational production chains, access to foreign markets and extra-regional (economic and political) outreach. The results of this study show how the public and private sector’s experience in international trade and international business has motivated the members of the Pacific Alliance to join forces to consolidate a platform for economic integration allowing them to increase market access, foster economic growth, and improve human development indicators in the region. From the political point of view, the paper concludes that the PA emerged as a liberal counterpart to the left-leaning integration initiatives that had been prevalent in the region during the preceding decade.

Abstract:
The Additional Protocol to the Framework Agreement of the Pacific Alliance (PA Additional Protocol) sets forth an additional layer for the protection of foreign investment to the preexisting International Investment Agreements (IIAs) between the PA Member States, posing a number of systemic questions regarding the application and interpretation of different treaty provisions and the way how they interplay. Against this background, the chief purpose of this article is to ascertain the extent to which the PA Member States have preserved a regulatory space for the protection of their essential interests in the PA Additional Protocol and the pre-existing IIAs between them.

Particular emphasis is given to variations in the scope of national security and public order exceptions vis-à-vis other investment treaty provisions, taking into account potential situations of overlapping and conflict of norms between the PA Additional Protocol and the pre-existing IIAs in place.

The article concludes that the narrower scope of the national security and public order exceptions in the PA Additional Protocol is outweighed by other provisions in the treaty that carefully balance the protection of investments vis-à-vis the right to regulate in the public interest. As highlighted by the UNCTAD, the PA Additional Protocol has all the elements suggested to preserve a regulatory space for public policies of host countries and to minimize the exposure to investment arbitration in this ground; this encompasses sensitives issues that would be otherwise governed by national security and public order exceptions in pre-existing IIAs between the PA Member States.

Author: Roberto Claros
Full document:2016, Claros, Investment Protection –Drawing Lessons from the PA Investment Treaties

Abstract:
The article develops a comparative study of bilateral treaties of the members of the Pacific Alliance with China, South Korea and Japan since 1990. This field of study has been little explored; hence the article seeks to provide a first approach with special emphasis on trade relations. Therefore, the document presents a comparison between main indicators of foreign trade and the bilateral treaties with Asian counterparts. Afterwards, it focuses on the use that can be given to rules of origin within the Alliance. The text concludes that Colombia, due to its position among its partners of the Alliance, can make use of cumulation as a strategy of short and medium term to promote and diversify international trade.

Resumen:
En el presente artículo se desarrolla un estudio comparado de los tratados bilaterales de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico con China, Corea del Sur y Japón, desde 1990. Como este campo de estudio ha sido poco explorado, se busca brindar una primera aproximación con énfasis en las relaciones comerciales.

En el documento se presenta una comparación de los principales indicadores de comercio exterior y los tratados bilaterales con las contrapartes asiáticas. Partiendo de esto, se enfoca en el aprovechamiento que pueden tener las normas de origen en el marco de la Alianza. A partir de lo anterior, se concluye que Colombia, por su posición entre sus socios de la Alianza, puede hacer uso de la acumulación como una estrategia de corto y mediano plazo para promover y diversificar el comercio internacional.

Authors: Ricardo Coutin and José Miguel Terán
Spanish Title: La Alianza del Pacífico: ¿apuesta estratégica de la política exterior colombiana?
Full document: 2016, Coutin & Terán, La Alianza del Pacífico- ¿Apuesta Estratégica de la Política Exterior Colombiana?